Correlation Is Not Causation (But It Might Be a Clue)

Anyone who works with data has heard the phrase correlation is not causation. It is true; two events occurring together do not prove one caused the other.

But correlation is not meaningless. For most people tracking health, energy, or mood, it is often the first signal that something deserves attention.

Correlation Is Not Proof; It Is Direction

You might notice:

Energy drops after nights of poor sleep
Mood shifts in the days before your period
Irritability rises when you skip lunch
Workouts feel stronger after journaling or meditation

None of these prove causation; they are still clues. They show pattern, and pattern is power.

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Why Correlation Gets Dismissed Too Quickly

We live in a world that worships certainty. Double-blind trials. Statistical significance. But your life is not a lab. It is nonlinear and full of variables.

Correlation is often the most human starting point for inquiry. It invites questions.

What else was happening when this started?
Is this an anomaly, or a trend?
What amplifies this outcome? What buffers it?

Annotation Turns Correlation into Context

Correlations gain meaning when paired with annotation, when you add what numbers cannot say.

A mood spike makes sense once you remember it followed an argument.
A glucose dip is clearer when you note you were on your period.
A drop in HRV feels less alarming once you recall you had traveled or drank the night before.

Context filters coincidence from connection. It does not prove cause; it makes the signal readable.

You Do Not Need Certainty to Be Curious

The goal is not to live as a study. It is to notice.

Spot early signals.
Run small experiments.
Adjust based on what helps or harms.
Stay open to revising your story.

Correlation does not close the conversation; it opens it.

It is not a verdict. It is a clue.

When paired with your own context — your notes, your rhythms, your reflections — it becomes something stronger than proof. It becomes personal insight.